Given the increase of the intensity of hurricanes this may be a rational decision especially since scientists predicted in 2001 that that “the present (i.e., 1971-1994 period) high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional 10-40 years.” There is also a tendency of people in hard-hit areas, due to natural phenomena, to stay and rebuild their life. And as one of them said, “‘If there is an error to be made, I would much rather be talking to someone who is mad because we told them to leave than to a widow we didn’t tell to leave and house is 40 miles out in the ocean.”įorecasters, meteorologists, oceanographers and the devoted emergency responders, will learn a lot from Ian, but what about the people who suffered its consequences? In the short run those people will have to rearrange their life, rebuild their homes and some may decide to move elsewhere. Professional forecasters are risk averse, and despite improvement in the ability to predict the path of hurricanes, they anticipate the possibility of errors. The latter decision was made, for example, in October 2001 when Hurricane Irene was brewing in the Gulf of Mexico - but given the past two “false alarms” in Florida (Hurricane Floyd and Tropical Storm Harvey both in 1999), local officials in both counties were reluctant to issue another evacuation for Irene, feeling that they could not politically afford to issue a third “unnecessary” evacuation.
The dilemma of officials is that they have to choose between two possible errors, either calling an evacuation that becomes a false alarm or not calling for an evacuation with horrendous consequences of a hurricane.
Professional forecasters know that it is impossible to predict exactly where a hurricane will make landfall, and the error can be up to 100 miles in each direction in the last 24 hours before landing. Following Hurricane Ian last week, Fort Myers residents were once again surprised and astonished, but the people in Tampa were thankful for the same change in Ian’s track while having strong sympathy with the residents of Fort Myers. Several business people from Tampa were unhappy about the false alarm and the lost business due to the tourists who left when the evacuation was announced, and some blamed the authorities for causing those losses. But Charley, a Category 4 hurricane, veered south and hit Fort Myers, whose inhabitants were shocked by the negative surprise and the destruction that Charley left. In August 2014, Hurricane Charley was on a predicted path to hit Tampa, and an evacuation order was issued there.
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